I thought this day would never come. Well, I at least thought it would  take another ten or twenty years before a measure to legalize recreational marijuana  would be seriously considered by an American constituency. I was wrong.  California's Proposition 19, that will legalize recreational pot use, is just barely behind in the polls.
This is  spectacularly cool for a number of reasons, the foremost being the  realization of a truer liberty in America. I've long thought that our  founding fathers must be rolling in their graves to know that an  essentially harmless drug like marijuana would be made formally illegal. If Ben Franklin were alive today I'm sure he'd be a fan of pot.
I will grant that marijuana is  not entirely harmless. Like caffeine, THC can stunt childrens' growth,  like alcohol it lowers inhibitions and though there is no indication  that extensive abuse causes brain damage the way alcohol does, residual  THC (aka permastone) can dampen brain function for a month or two,  though only noticeably so if epic quantities of pot are involved. I think every informed person will grant that the social risks of marijuana  use are vastly overshadowed by alcohol and the health risks are  overshadowed by tobacco.
I think it's fairly obvious that the decrease in price and increase in  availability of pot will result in an increase in its consumption. I'd  like you to pause for a moment and consider whether that's a bad thing. Prop 19 opponents will point out that many people have abuse problems with the drugs we already have legal, so why should we allow consumption of yet another drug? The answer is that while alcohol and prescription drugs do cause problems, there is an overwhelming good that comes from their being legal. I know I've enjoyed the benefits of responsible alcohol use.
THC is a non-habit forming drug, in contrast to nicotine, caffeine and,  yes, alcohol. That means that consumers must repeatedly make the  conscious, non-coerced choice to continue smoking pot. It is a drug  consumed more voluntarily than any major legal recreational drug, to say  nothing of hard drugs like meth, cocaine and heroin. Honestly, if not  for the deference of American common law to consensus --that is,  approaching this from a purely constitutional perspective-- marijuana  use has far better grounds as a individual right than alcohol or  tobacco.
There is some concern that legalizing pot would increase availability of  the drug to minors. If Prohibition was any indication, though, bringing  pot consumption above ground will make it easier to control who the drug  is made available to. Right now minors have better access to pot than cigarettes or alcohol.
One figure I heard estimated the annual value of the Californian pot  crop at twelve billion dollars. That's roughly three times the value of  every other field crop in the state combined. That crop's value will  diminish considerably if Proposition 19 passes. A modest chunk (1.5  billion) will go into taxes. Based on a projected 80% decrease in  marijuana prices, that only leaves about one billion for the pot growing  industry. Granted, these figures assume no increase in consumption, but these figures project a collapse in  industry value by a factor of ten.
Of the original 12 billion, 1.5 billion will go to taxes and around a  billion will go to run the industry. The remaining nine billion will be stolen back from the black market economy. Mexican drug cartels make a majority of their income from  marijuana trafficking, so we can be sure that a significant amount of  money will no longer be making it southward or indeed into organized  crime across the state. Further, the profit margins that growers,  distributors and dealers once made will disappear in the blink of an  eye. Without the risk of incarceration those jobs will no longer pay unreasonably well. It is worth mentioning that Kush Magazine, everybody's "premier  cannabis lifestyle magazine" had an ad in it opposing Prop 19, paid for  by a medical marijuana dispensary. Middle school dope peddlers and  Mexican drug lords won't be the only people suffering if Prop 19 is  passed, let's not forget California's newest capitalists.
Voting for Proposition 19 is the correct choice from both a practical standpoint (improving government finance at the expense of cartels) and a civil liberties one. Legalizing a relatively harmless recreational drug like marijuana is fundamentally American and would make California a beacon of liberty. It would also probably set up a Supreme Court battle worth talking about.
Though September polls showed Prop 19 leading in September, it has slipped since then. Arnold Schwarzenegger is preparing a consolation prize should the Proposition fail-- decriminalization. A fairly even vote will also get people thinking about the ins and outs of legalization. There's a decent chance that a loss now will set up a victory later. That said, don't plan on losing this quite yet. The vote is still close and a recent study showed that Prop 19 polls are subject to a strong social desirability bias.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
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That $1.5 billion takes care of over 6% of the state's budget deficit with no taxation on existing (legal) industry. If only all taxes could be so painless!
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